Visit our new Headquarters in SecondLife. Click HERE or on image for more information.
Watch the new video HERE and part II HERE. See the buildings on the campus HERE
MP Dictionary
A database of Past and Present Millennium Project Participants
Dictionary Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Asymtote | Straight line that continuously approaches a curve but does not meet it within finite distance. John Young: Having the property of monotonically approaching a specific value without ever reaching it, as in "1/x is asymptotic to 0 as x increases." |
| Access point | That opening of any system or situation which allows an opportunity to introduce a new idea, method or connection. |
| Action | The opening of any system or situation which allows an opportunity to introduce a new idea, method or connection. |
| Action | It is the element that brings some Futures Studies closer to planning |
| Action research | To conduct diligence to discover something. Conducting research about a activity while conducting that activity; e.g., studying microcredit approaches while conducting microcredit programs. Is a method for intentional learning from experience, originally formulated by social psychologist Kurt Lewin. “Action Research” is characterised by intervention in real world systems followed by close scrutiny of the effects. Its aim is to improve practice and it is typically conducted by a combined team of practitioners and researchers. |
| Action research | To do some diligence to discover something. Conducting research about an activity while conducting that activity; e.g., studying micro credit approaches while conducting micro credit programs. Is a method for intentional learning from experience, originally formulated by social psychologist Kurt Lewin. “Action Research” is characterised by intervention in real world systems, followed by close scrutiny of the effects. Its aim is to improve practice and it is typically conducted by a combined team of practitioners and researchers. |
| Action research | To do some diligences to discover something. Conducting research about an activity while conducting that activity; e.g., studying micro credit approaches while conducting micro credit programs. Is a method for intentional learning from experience, originally formulated by social psychologist Kurt Lewin. “Action Research” is characterised by intervention in real world systems, followed by close scrutiny of the effects. Its aim is to improve practice and it is typically conducted by a combined team of practitioners and researchers. |
| Actor’s game | Method to analyze the behaviors, strategies and projects in which any actor is involved in regard to the study issue. |
| Actor’s game | Method to analyze the behaviors, strategies and projects in which any actor is involved in regard to the study issue. |
| Actor’s game | Method to analize the behaviors, strategies and projects in which any actor is involved in regard to the study issue. |
| Actor’s strategies | Impact deals with actors and their objectives. better definition needed |
| Adaptation policy | Action and effect to adapt public affairs. |
| ADL METHOD | It is one of the business portfolio models that depend on a segmentation of the firm’s business activities and its positioning in relation to key factor of success that are commonly considered fundamental. This method considers that an area's value is appraised using the notion of sector maturity and the competitive position in an area is appraised through a series of criteria among which the relative market share is not necessarily the most important. It offers answers that rely on more criteria hence they are less brutal and more realistic than the BCG (Boston consulting Group) method. |
| Agent model quick basic program | The method of using agent model draws strength from the ability of the analyst to perform sensitivity tests quite simply, and to present the evolving drama of the simulations on the screen in a parody of real life. An agent model involves the creation of computer generated “agents" that "populate" a computer screen, and interact with one another according to a set of behavioral rules, may be of different species, they may have different attributes and may be assigned different rules. Their interaction over time is usually simulated by successive "plays" of the rules as the evolving attributes and spatial positions of the agents computed. The spaces in the environment in which the agents are placed may also contain rules. To build an agent model, a "population" is established across a computer screen. The population may consist of classes of agents that have different behavioral instructions. The rules may vary with time, position, position of other agents, history, or other factors. The geographic space on which the agents are placed or move to may also have defined attributes that change with time or with their occupation. The equations used in the model describe the relationship between each of the agents or types of agents and their environment. Successive runs of the model simulate the passing of time. Agent models in this method have the capacity to replicate dynamic systems, which classically are described by sets of partial differential equations. They build the system from the bottom up rather than the top down. In models that employ agents that interact according to simple rules, complexity or chaos may emerge as a result of the simple rules that govern the individual agents, nor from the complex equations. An agent model involves the creation of computer generated "agents" that "populate" a computer screen, and interact with one another according to a set of behavioral rules. They may also interact with the spatial environment in which they are placed. |
| Agro-biotechnology | The application of biotechnology to agriculture, such as the use of modern recombinant DNA technology implants breeding programs to increase crop yield or disease resistance. In addition to creating genetically modified novel crop varieties, aggro-biotechnology is also used by conservationists to maintain a viable global supply of germ plasm in order to safeguard future genetic diversity and a continuing crop inventory. |
| Algorithm or Algorism Term proposed by Ted Gordon | Any mathematical operation in which Arabic numerals are used,consists of the steps in the process of determining the greatest common divisor of two integers. |
| Alien life | It is certainly possible that life is common across the universe. something is missing here. Readings from distant sources in the galaxy have detected some chemical constituents of chlorophyll and amino acids. One serious scientific theory proposes that ice from impacting comets may have delivered the first building blocks of life to Earth. Solar systems with planets similar to our own are relatively common, estimated conservatively by Harvard University's something is missing here. Harlow Shapley at more than one hundred million facts for life in our solar system are on Europe, one port flying saucers and alien abductions. Scientific life cannot be found because it quickly tends to destroy itself with its own technology. |
| Alternate technology | Is one of several technologies that exist or can be developed within the time frame required to meet one or more targets for a technology road-map. In some cases, two technologies are pure alternatives in that the target can be reached using either technology X or Y. In other cases, they may be complementary, in that X and Y together may allow a target to be obtained. |
| Alternate technology | Is one of several technologies that exist or can be developed within the time frame required to meet one or more targets for a technology road-map. In some cases, two technologies are pure alternatives in that the target can be reached using either technology X or Y. In other cases, they may be complementary, in that X and Y together may allow a target to be obtained. |
| Alternative Development Paths Propuesto por Perelet | Ways that are built to foster another options for growth. - Better definition needed and might be redundant with alternative futures |
| Alternative energy | Derives from natural sources able to regenerate themselves: sun, wind and water. Energy sources other than the dominate sources today such as fossil fuels and nuclear that will be depleted one day |
| Alternative futures | This is considered by many to be the core concept of futures studies. It suggests that individuals, groups, cultures, etc. are not set on a deterministic path to a single unitary future but, by using their powers of foresight and decision-making, can select from a wide range of future trajectories and outcomes. |
| Alternative paradigm | An up-and-coming alternative social framework or world-view. The environmental paradigm places intrinsic value in the preservation of nature, is eco-centric, based on soft power and soft technology, treat economics only as a means to an end, recognizes limits to growth, condones collaborative, leisurely and sufficiency lifestyles, believes in grassroots organization, decentralization, people power and nonviolent direct action, is non-consumerist and non-nuclear, promotes sustainable development and ethical value systems, and encourages compassion and tolerance towards other species, human groups and future generations. |
| Alternative Technology Proponed by Sirkka Def. John Young | Technology designed to be an alternative to “Western” industrial methods. It emphasizes the use of simple equipment made on the spot, environmental conservation, social responsibility, and individual or small-group efforts. |
| Ambient Intelligence (AI) Propuesto por Sirkka | The concept of ambient intelligence or AmI is a vision where humans are surrounded by computing and networking technology unobtrusively embedded in their surroundings. The concept of ambient intelligence (AmI) was developed by the ISTAG advisory group to the European Commission’s DG Information Society and the Media. AmI puts the emphasis on user-friendliness, efficient and distributed services support, user empowerment, and support for human interactions. This vision assumes a shift away from PCs to a variety of devices which are unobtrusively embedded in our environment and which are accessed via intelligent interfaces. |
| Ambiguity | The quality of having a double meaning, open to various interpretations. Of doubtful nature or meaning. Uncertain. |
| Ambiguity | The quality of having a double meaning, open to various interpretations. Of doubtful nature or meaning. Uncertain. |
| Analog | The consistently similar relationship when the amounts of two physical systems are alike. It is the antonym to "digital"., which is the vibration signal. One quantified signal when samples were taken and that consists in a series of number, generally binary. Analog is an open-source web log analysis software program that runs under Windows, Mac OS, Linux, and most Unix-like operating systems. The program is comparable to Webalizer, though it does not use as many images, preferring to stick with simple bar charts and lists to communicate the same information. |
| Analogy | In future studies, analogy applies to the dynamics of events in the past to help predict the future. 5 de mayo Technique in which systematic parallelisms are drawn between past situations and others that might happen in the long term. Its goal is to find similar structural configurations, at least in any cardinal component, and to get out of them some teaching for the future. It characterizes accepting the postulates of the structuralisms schools that maintain that further changing phenomena could be observed at a high regularity. It uses consistent quantitative indicators (if possible), creates parallelisms among real situations and other possible and finds two set of events (one past and other present or future) that have similar structural elements. Researches systematically use the comparative grade between both situations. It “Cleans” the variable of external influences, episodic or of the context of the situations that are not pertinent with the analogy goals. It determines the conditions that allow the reproduction of the two event wholes. Enounces the policies designated to prevent future situations. Its applications in the Economy allows determining similar effects or that are unlikely in its growth: allows the planning of a future situation ),introduces highlights in the present): supports the programs implanting (Educational, productive, administrative, etc.= |
| Analysis of variance, Ted Gordon | Statistical term related to the quadratic deviations media from an aleatoria variable, related to its médium value Analysis of variance is a proper method for multidimensional and multifactorial researches, designed oin such a way that factors change at the same time, but can always be analysed as well as in its mutual relationship. The analysis of variance determines the relative importance of several casual factors to produce a determined effect. Because in the social sciences experimenting only few times is possible, the study of each factor through its systematic isolation and the analysis of variance should help with statistical-mathematical procedures of isolation. In statistics, analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a collection of statistical models and their associated procedures which compare means by splitting the overall observed variance into different parts |
| And / Both Thinking | The capacity to see direct, indirect or oblique connections in everything without having to identify the one best answer. |
| Animal rights | The right is something to which an entity is entitled. Traditionally only human beings have been said to possess rights and even then the term "rights" is understood by many philosophers as having only legal currency rather than moral authority. The notion of animal rights extends rights to certain non-humans, typically those with sentience, that is, the ability to feel pleasures and pains. Those who advocate animal rights, maintain that to allow humans rights but to deny them to all other species are species- which is unacceptably discriminatory. There is an ethical and legal move to ascribe rights to Great Apes, and New-Zealand has enacted laws which do. The UK and European Union have not enacted laws which ascribe rights to the Great Apes but it has stopped the practice of using Great Apes in medical experiments, whatever the purported benefits. |
| Anomaly Proposed by Perelet and Ted Gordon | Discrepancy from a rule or use i.e the value, phenomenon, event, etc. which does not fit into some expected pattern. Futurists look for anomalies as potential indicators of emerging conditions. In an anomaly time series the times are not uniformly spaced. |
| Anticipatory democracy | Coined by Alvin Toffler and later a book edited by Clem Bezold. Processes like Charrettes and SYNCONS are early examples of how an anticipatory democracy would operate. Is the model of a future which is built on the basis of logic about the people’s predominium in the political government of a State. Anticipatory democracy is a theory of civics relying on democratic decision- making that takes into account predictions of future events that have some credibility with the electorate. It closely resembles the civic ideal of technocracy. To do this anticipation, prediction markets and other risk management techniques may be embedded into bureaucracies and agencies to overcome the group thinking inherent in such bodies, which makes it quite difficult for them to anticipate uncomfortable future events. The Future MAP program of the Information Awareness Office program of the United States government proposed a prediction market prior to its cancellation on July 29 2003. Well-known advocates of the anticipatory approach including Newt Gingrich, Alvin Toffler and Heidi Toffler, K. Eric Drexler, and Robin Hanson. They all advocate approaches where the public, not just experts, participate in this "anticipation". It is questionable whether the US IAO program has, or can have, enough openness to satisfy any of them. Bioregional democracy can appear as a variant of anticipatory democracy in a sense that it anticipates (using a similar scientific process) the ecological health outcomes of any given action. However it usually relies more on far less fragile means, and less on compared measures and quantities: An alternative, deliberative democracy, may combine with either the anticipatory or the bioregional model. It relies less on formal models and a market system for betting on future events, and more on discussion. Deliberative, anticipatory and bioregional approaches can all be considered variants of participatory democracy with different thresholds of ease of participation, burden of proof, concern for non-human life or future generations, and reflection of participants' tolerances versus preferences or ideals of truth. Sometimes a deliberative model is described as more "left" and an anticipatory model as more "right". Those who wish to avoid this debate and see merits to both approaches, e.g. Greens, usually prefer the generic term "participatory democracy." This term has become fundamental to green politics itself. Other terms which likewise have more specific associations with advocates or methods include: grassroots democracy, semi-direct democracy and consensus. |
| Anticipatory policy Proponed by Perelet | To foresee actions and effects in regard to the guidelines related to a person or entity acting in certain issue or field. |
| Area sampling | Selection of a small statistical determined part, used to deduce the value of one or several characteristics from the whole part. |
| Ariole | Quantitative model used in foresight studies, it’s a guide for planning and has the purpose to support decision-making, through the whole knowledge of different factors linked in a specific problem. It is a guide for planning and whole knowledge for the different factors linked into a specific problem |
| Artificial intelligence | AI is the computer modeling and software simulation of human intelligence and other mental processes. Such intelligence would include holding a conversation, problem solving, thought processing, object manipulation, playing chess, writing stories, translating, speech recognition, pattern recognition (vision), interactivity and learning. Current commercial AI has been slow to match the science fiction dreamers in simulating human mental functions. However, the evolution of technology is accelerating and tends to progress in sudden surges. "Expert Systems" and "Decision-Support Systems" are the practical application of AI research. They are used for solving problems and making decisions in a particular domain, for example "Cyc" is in of AI. Bionics, cybernetics and the cyber are medical applications of AI. Combination of all these technological features of intelligence is called the "top-down" approach to AI, whereas the "bottom up" approach is the endowment of "Artificial Life" with the powers of replication, adaptation, learning and self -evolution criticized. It seems that certain thresholds or previous limits to the creation of artificial intelligence are likely to breach by advances in quantum computing, nanotechnology and/or molecular electronics. These advances combine immense increases in processing power with the replication and manipulation of molecules and atoms, and add carbon (organic molecules) to the traditional silicon of microcircuits. Artificial intelligence (abbreviated AI) is defined as intelligence exhibited by an artificial entity. Such a system is generally assumed to be a computer. Although AI has a strong science fiction connotation, it forms a vital branch of computer science, dealing with intelligent behavior, learning and adaptation in machines. Research in AI is concerned with producing machines to automate tasks requiring intelligent behavior. Examples include control, planning and scheduling, the ability to answer diagnostic and consumer questions, handwriting, speech, and facial recognition. As such, it has become a scientific discipline, focused on providing solutions to real life problems. AI systems are now in routine use in economics, medicine, engineering and the military, as well as being built into many common home computer software applications, traditional strategy games like computer chess and other video games. |
| Artificial neural networks | Are the computational models which emulate biological neural networks? Artificial neural networks contain components and functions analogous to neurons, for example the processing element (nucleus), network node (soma), inputs (dendrites), output (axon) and signal weight (synapse, though without all of the layers of complexity of biology. Artificial neural networks are associative memory systems using inductive reasoning, self-organization and parallel processing similar to the human brain. They are driven by data, and function by scanning many case studies for common patterns. They can function despite the presence of ambiguity by using induction, associative memory or fuzzy logic. Artificial neural network (ANN), also called a simulated neural network (SNN) or commonly just neural network (NN) is an interconnected group of artificial neurons that uses a mathematical or computational model for information processing based on a connectionist approach to computation. In most cases an ANN is an adaptive system that changes its structure based on external or internal information that flows through the network. In more practical terms neural networks are non-linear statistical data modeling tools. They can be used to model complex relationships between inputs and outputs or to find patterns in data. |
| Assembling a panel | There are two interrelated considerations to take into account when profiling panels: 1) Composition –what mix of knowledge is required to address the panel remit 2)-what mix of views, positions, value judgments and scientific disciplines that should be represented on the panel to ensure even-handed analysis and conclusions. Also, a mix of institutional categories should be considered, such as selection a balance of panelists who work for government, corporations, international organizations (UN, NATO, etc.), universities, NGOs, and religious institutions. |
| Assumption Proposed by Hazel Henderson & Ted Gordon | Object and matter that is not expressed in the proposition, but it is something that depends, or in which its truth lies or is found. However, today, futurists more often make their assumptions known by writing scenarios ,explaining the “scenarios space” defined by axes and drivers of the alternative scenarios. An assumption is a proposition that is assumed, i.e., treated within the context of a discussion as if it were known to be true or false. |
| Attractor | The end state toward which a dynamical system moves. In dynamical systems, an attractor is a set to which the system evolves after a long enough time. For the set to be an attractor, trajectories that get close enough to the attractor must remain close even if slightly disturbed. Geometrically, an attractor can be a point, a curve, a manifold, or even a complicated set with fractal structures known as a strange attractor. Describing the attractors of chaotic dynamical systems has been one of the achievements of chaos theory. A trajectory of the dynamical system in the attractor does not have to satisfy any special constraints except for remaining on the attractor. The trajectory may be periodic or chaotic or of any other type. |
| Auto-correlation analysis | Consists of correlating the data at a particular time with data at an earlier time. Accommodates searches for the existence of repeatable cycles. If data –is suspected of containing a repeating cycle, autocorrelation analysis can help to determine if such a cycle is really there. Auto correlation is a mathematical tool used frequently in signal processing for analysing functions or series of values, such as time domain signals. It is the cross-correlation of a signal with itself. Auto correlation is useful for finding repeated patterns in a signal, such as determining the presence of a periodic signal which has been buried under noise, or identifying the fundamental frequency of a signal which doesn't actually contain that frequency component, but implies it with many harmonic frequencies. |
| Automata proposed by Ted Gordon and John Young | Instrument or set that includes inside itself, the mechanism that imparts several movements. John Young A freestanding device or system that carries out a (usually complex) function without outside intervention. Ted Gordon An automaton is a mathematical model for a finite state machine (FSM). An FSM is a machine that, given an input, jumps through a series of states according to a transition function (which can be expressed as a table). In the common "Mealy" variety of FSMs, this transition function tells the automaton which state to go to next given a current state and a current symbol. The input is read symbol by symbol, until it is consumed completely (think of it as a tape with a word written on it, that is read by a reading head of the automaton; the head moves forward over the tape, reading one symbol at a time). Once the input is depleted, the automaton is said to have stopped. Depending on the state in which the automaton stops, it's said that the automaton either accepts or rejects the input. If it landed in an accept state, then the automaton accepts the word. If, on the other hand, it lands on a non-accept state, the word is rejected. The set of all the words accepted by an automaton is called the language accepted by the automaton. An automaton (plural:automata) is a self-operating machine. The word is sometimes used to describe a robot, more specifically an autonomous robot. |
| Autonomous or excluded variables | They are situated mostly, in the system's center of gravity. They can successively act now as secondary levers, as weak objectives, and as secondary stakes. They are at once little in-fluent and little dependent. |
| Avalanche models Proposed by Ted Gordon | Lat modulus Structured criticality is a property of complex systems whereby small events may trigger larger events due to subtle inter-dependencies between elements. This often gives rise to a kind of stratified chaos where the general behavior of the system can be modeled on one scale while smaller and larger scale behaviors remain unpredictable. For example: A pile of sand. If you drop one grain of sand on top of this pile every second, the pile will continue to grow in the shape of a cone. The general shape, size, and growth of this cone is fairly easy to model as a function of the rate at which new sand grains are added, the size and shape of the grains, and the number of grains in the pile. The pile retains its shape because occasionally a new grain of sand will trigger an avalanche which causes some number of grains to slide down the side of the cone into new positions. These avalanches are chaotic. It is nearly impossible to predict if the next grain of sand will cause an avalanche, where that avalanche will occur on the pile, how many grains of sand will be involved in the event, etc... However, the aggregate behavior of avalanches can be modeled statistically with some accuracy. For example, you can reasonably predict the frequency of avalanche events of different sizes. The avalanches are caused when the impact of a new grain of sand is sufficient to dislodge some group of sand grains. If that group is dislodged then its motion may be sufficient to cause a cascade failure in some neighboring groups while other groups that are nearby may be strong enough to absorb the energy of the event without being disturbed. Each group of sand grains can be thought of as a sub-system with its own state and each sub-system can be made up of other sub-systems and so on. In this way you can imagine the sand pile as a complex system made up of sub-systems ultimately made up of individual grains of sand (yet another sub-system). Each of these sub-systems is more or less likely to suffer a cascade failure. Those that are likely to fail and reorganize can be said to be in a critical state. Put another way, the likelihood that any particular sub-system will fail (or experience a particular event) can be called its criticality. So then, the pile of sand can be viewed as a network of interconnected systems, each with its own criticality. The relationships between these groups impose a structure on this network which has a profound effect on the probability and scope of a cascade failure in response to some other event. In other words - structured criticality. |
| Averaging methods | Refers to several methods in which data on historical trends can be smoothed. The arithmetic means can be calculated and used as a forecast. However, this assumes that the time series is based on a fairly constant underlying process. Simple moving averages, which are computed dropping the oldest observation and including the newest, provide a method of dampening the influence of previous data sets. Linear moving averages provide a more sophisticated averaging method better suited to addressing trends that involve volatile change. |
| Backcasting | 1. A method of forecasting or planning in which an event is posited as having occurred in the future. It offers a way to get a group to envision a desirable future and then determine what must happen in order for that goal to be reached. (1) 2. A futures method in which a particular future scenario is identified in some detail. Its origins and lines of development are then carefully traced back into the present. Often contrasted with forecasting. 3. Method used in foresight. Starts with an accurate identification of a specific scenario, rebuilds its development in inverse, searching its origins and evolution. Conceptually, is the inverse procese to foresight. 4. This approach starts with the description of a future state and asks how t can that state be logically achieved by following chains of causality from that future state back to the present. |
| Backnetting Proposed by Perelet | Back can also refer to the direction of travel exactly opposite to the current movement. In general, netting means to allow a positive value and a negative value to cancel each other out |
| Backstop technology Proposed by Perelet | A technology that is a substitute for one that uses natural resources. For example, wind turbines can be thought of as a backstop substitute for the use of coal for electricity generation. Wind power is currently a backstop technology and that makes it more expensive than conventionally-generated power, but as fossil fuels stocks deplete and prices increase, power generators will switch to the construction of wind turbines. The backstop technology cost is the upper boundary of the price of the natural resource in question since, if the price rose above this level, generators would switch to using the backstop. See also renewable energy. |
| Bandwidth Proposed by Ted Gordon | Research by John Young In a communications channel, the maximum range of frequencies (for an analog line) or bit rate (for a digital link) the channel will transmit without exceeding some specified loss. Wikipedia: Bandwidth is a measure of frequency range, measured in hertz, of a function of a frequency variable. Bandwidth is a central concept in many fields, including information theory, radio communications, signal processing, and spectroscopy. It also refers to data rates when communicating over certain media or devices. According to the Shannon-Hartley theorem, the data rate of reliable communication is directly proportional to the frequency range of the signal used for the communication. In this context, the word bandwidth can refer to either the data rate or the frequency range of the communication system (or both). Bandwidth is a key concept in many applications. In radio communications, for example, bandwidth is the range of frequencies occupied by a modulated carrier wave, whereas in optics it is the width of an individual spectral line or the entire spectral range There is no single universal precise definition of bandwidth, as it is vaguely understood to be the measure of how wide a function is in the frequency domain. For different applications, there are different precise definitions. For example, one definition of bandwidth could be the range of frequencies beyond which the frequency function is zero. This would correspond to the mathematical notion of the support of a function (i.e., the total “length” of values for which the function is nonzero). Another definition might not be so strict and ignore the frequencies where the frequency function is small. Small could mean less than 3 dB below (i.e., less than half of) the maximum value or it could mean below a certain absolute value. In short, as with any definition of the width of a function, there are many definitions available, which are suitable for different applications. Analogue systems Investigado por John Young En un canal de comunicación, el rango máximo de frecuencia ( para una línea análoga) o una proporción pequeña (para un enlace digital,) el canal transmitirá sin exceder alguna pérdida especificada. Wikipedia: La banda ancha es una medida de rango de frecuencia, media en hertz, de un función para una frecuencia variable. La banda ancha es un concepto central en muchos campos, incluyendo la información teórica, las radio comunicaciones, las señales de procesamiento, y el espectroscopio. La banda ancha también se refiere a las proporciones de información cuando se comunica a través de varios medios o dispositivos. De acuerdo al teorema de Shannon-Harley la proporción de la información confiable de comunicar es directamente proporcional a la frecuencia del rango de la señal usada para la comunicación. En este contexto, la palabra banda ancha se puede referir bien sea a la proporción de la información o a la frecuencia del rango del sistema de comunicación (o ambos). No hay una definición precisa universal de banda ancha, dado que es sobrenentendida vagamente como una medida de cuán ancha puede ser la función en la frecuencia del dominio. Para las diferentes aplicaciones éstas son unas definiciones precisas. Por ejemplo, una definición de banda ancha podría ser el rango de frecuencias atrás de las cuales la función de la frecuencia es cero. Esto podría corresponder la noción matemática para el soporte de una función (por ejemplo la “longitud” total de los valores para los cuales la función es no cero). Otra definición podría no ser tan estricta e ignorar las frecuencia cuando la función de la frecuencia es pequeña. Pequeña puede significar menos de 3 dB abajo (Por ejemplo., menos de la mitad de ) el valor máximo, o puede estar por debajo de un valor cierto absoluto. En breve, con cualquier definición de la función de la anchura, pueden haber definiciones disponibles, que sean valida para diferentes aplicaciones. Sistemas análogos Research by John Young In a communications channel, the maximum range of frequencies (for an analog line) or bit rate (for a digital link) the channel will transmit without exceeding some specified loss. Wikipedia: Bandwidth is a measure of frequency range, measured in hertz, of a function of a frequency variable. Bandwidth is a central concept in many fields, including information theory, radio communications, signal processing, and spectroscopy. It also refers to data rates when communicating over certain media or devices. According to the Shannon-Hartley theorem, the data rate of reliable communication is directly proportional to the frequency range of the signal used for the communication. In this context, the word bandwidth can refer to either the data rate or the frequency range of the communication system (or both). Bandwidth is a key concept in many applications. In radio communications, for example, bandwidth is the range of frequencies occupied by a modulated carrier wave, whereas in optics it is the width of an individual spectral line or the entire spectral range There is no single universal precise definition of bandwidth, as it is vaguely understood to be the measure of how wide a function is in the frequency domain. For different applications, there are different precise definitions. For example, one definition of bandwidth could be the range of frequencies beyond which the frequency function is zero. This would correspond to the mathematical notion of the support of a function (i.e., the total “length” of values for which the function is nonzero). Another definition might not be so strict and ignore the frequencies where the frequency function is small. Small could mean less than 3 dB below (i.e., less than half of) the maximum value or it could mean below a certain absolute value. In short, as with any definition of the width of a function, there are many definitions available, which are suitable for different applications. Analogue systems For analogue signals, which can be mathematically viewed as a function of time, bandwidth is the width, measured in hertz, of a frequency range in which the signal’s Fourier transform is nonzero. This definition can be relaxed where the bandwidth would cover the range of frequencies where the signal’s Fourier transform has a power above a certain amplitude threshold, say 3 dB within the maximum value, in the frequency domain. Bandwidth of a signal is a measure of how rapidly it fluctuates with respect to time. Hence, the greater the bandwidth, the faster the variation in the signal may be. The word bandwidth applies to signals as described above, but it could also apply to systems. In the latter case, to say that a system has a certain bandwidth is a short-hand for saying that the transfer function of the system has a certain bandwidth. As an example, the 3 dB bandwidth of the function depicted in the figure is f2 − f1, whereas other definitions of bandwidth would yield a different answer. The fact that real baseband systems have both negative and positive frequencies can lead to confusion about bandwidth, since they are sometimes referred to only by the positive half, and one will occasionally see expressions such as B = 2W, where B is the total bandwidth, and W is the positive bandwidth. For instance, this signal would require a lowpass filter with cutoff frequency of at least W to stay intact. The bandwidth of an electronic filter is the part of the filter’s frequency response that lies within 3 dB of the response at the center frequency of its peak. In signal, processing and control theory of the bandwidth is the frequency at which the closed-loop system gain drops to −3 dB. In basic electric circuit, theory when studying Band-pass and Band-reject filters the bandwidth represents the distance between the two points in the frequency domain where the signal is of the maximum signal strength. In photonics, the term bandwidth occurs in a variety of meanings: • the bandwidth of the output of some light source, e.g., an ASE source or a laser; the bandwidth of ultrashort optical pulses can be particularly large • the width of the frequency range that can be transmitted by some element, e.g. an optical fiber • the gain bandwidth of an optical amplifier • the width of the range of some other phenomenon (e.g., a reflection, the phase matching of a nonlinear process, or some resonance) • the maximum modulation frequency (or range of modulation frequencies) of an optical modulator • the range of frequencies in which some measurement apparatus (e.g., a powermeter) can operate • the data rate (e.g., in Gbit/s) achieved in an optical communication system |
| Bayes Theorem.Proposed by Ted Gordon | Research by John Young A theorem for calculating the probabilities of related events: P(A | B) = [ P(B | A) × P(A)] / P(B), where P(A | B) = the probability of A if B has occurred P(B | A) = the probability of B if A has occurred, and P (A) and P (B) are the probabilities of A and B each occurring,. not considering the other. For example: Suppose there are two bowls of cookies. Bowl #1 has 10 chocolate chip cookies and 30 plain cookies, while bowl #2 has 20 of each. Fred picks a bowl at random, and then picks a cookie at random. The cookie turns out to be a plain one. How probable is it that Fred picked it out of bowl #1? Let A be "Picking Bowl 1" and B be "Getting a plain cookie". Then P(B | A) = 3/4 P(A) = 1/2 P(B) = 5/8 So P( A | B) = 3/4 × 1/2 / 5/8 = 3/5 Wikipedia Bayes' theorem (also known as Bayes' rule) is a result in probability theory, which relates the conditional and marginal probability distributions of random variables. In some interpretations of probability, Bayes' theorem tells how to update or revise beliefs in light of new evidence. The probability of an event A conditional on another event B is generally different from the probability of B conditional on A. However, there is a definite relationship between the two, and Bayes' theorem is the statement of that relationship. As a formal theorem, Bayes' theorem is valid in all interpretations of probability. However, frequentist and Bayesian interpretations disagree about the kinds of things to which probabilities should be assigned in applications: frequentists assigned probabilities to random events according to their frequencies of occurrence or to subsets of populations as proportions of the whole; Bayesians assign probabilities to propositions that are uncertain. A consequence is that Bayesians have more frequent occasion to use Bayes' theorem. The articles on Bayesian probability and frequentist probability discuss these debates at greater length. Statement of Bayes' theorem Bayes' theorem relates the conditional and marginal probabilities of stochastic events A and B: where L(A|B) is a likelihood of A given B for a fixed value of B. Each term in Bayes' theorem has a conventional name: • Pr(A) is the prior probability or marginal probability of A. It is "prior" in the sense that it does not take into account any information about B. • Pr(A|B) is the conditional probability of A, given B. It is also called the posterior probability because it is derived from or depends upon the specified value of B. • Pr(B|A) is the conditional probability of B given A. • Pr(B) is the prior or marginal probability of B, and acts as a normalizing constant. With this terminology, the theorem may be paraphrased as In words: the posterior probability is proportional to the prior probability times the likelihood. In addition, the ratio Pr(B|A)/Pr(B) is sometimes called the standardized likelihood, so the theorem may also be paraphrased as |
| Bayesians | Its goal is to take decisions from inferences regarding the situation happened It characterises improvements of the knowledge of certain probabilities for events still to happen, incorporation with previous information, in which the experts judgment play an important role. |
| Bayesians | Its goal is to take decisions from inferences regarding the situation happened It characterises improvements of the knowledge of certain probabilities for events still to happen, incorporation with previous information, in which the experts judgment play an important role. |
| Belief Systems Proposed by Hazel Henderson | The dictionary translation is: Group of rules and principles in regard to an issue that is rationally linked among them and that deserves to be trusted |
| Bell Curve. Proposed by Ted Gordon | Research by John Young The curve depicting the Normal Distribution The graph of the probability density functions of the normal distribution. It is also called the bell-shaped curve;. Bell curve grading is a method of grading examinations. |
| Bequest Values. Proponed by Perelet | A bequest is the disposition of property by will. Strictly, "bequest" is used for personal property, and "devise" of real property. |
| Beta Test. Proponed by Ted Gordon | A beta version or beta release usually represents the first version of a computer program that implemented all required features although additional features may still be added. It is likely to be unstable but useful for internal demonstrations and previews to select customers, but not ready for release. Some developers refer to this stage as a preview, as a technical preview (TP) or as an early access. Often this stage begins when the developers announce a feature freeze on the product, indicating that no more features requirements will be accepted for this version of the product. Only software issues, or bugs and unimplemented features will be addressed. Beta versions stand at an intermediate step in the full development cycle. Developers release them to a group of beta testers (sometimes the public) for a user test. The testers report any bugs that they found and sometimes, minor features they would like to see in the final version. For example in September 2005, Microsoft started releasing regular Windows Vista Community Technology Previews (CTP) to beta testers. The first of these was build 5219. Subsequent CTPs introduced most of the planned features, as well as a number of changes to the user interface, based in large part on feedback from beta testers. Windows Vista was deemed feature complete with the release of build 5308 CTP, released on February 22, 2006, and much of the remainder of work between that build and the final release of the product will focus on stability, performance, application and driver compatibility, and documentation. When a beta becomes available to the public it is often widely used by the technologically savvy and those familiar with previous versions as though it were the finished product. Usually developers of freeware or open-source betas release them to the public while proprietary betas go to a relatively small group of testers. In February 2005, ZDNet published an article about the recent phenomenon of a beta version often staying for years and being used as if it were in production-level [1]. It noted that Gmail and Google News, for example, had been in beta for a long period of time and were not expected to drop the beta status despite the fact that they were widely used; however, Google News did leave beta in January 2006. This technique may also allow a developer to delay offering full support and/or responsibility for remaining issues. Recipients of highly proprietary betas may have to sign a non-disclosure agreement |
| BIAS Proposed by Ted Gordon | A bias is a prejudice in a general or specific sense, usually in the sense for having a predilection to one particular point of view or ideological perspective. However, one is generally, only said to be biased if one's powers of judgment are influenced by the biases one holds, to the extent that one's views could not be taken as being neutral or objective, but instead as subjective. A bias could, for example, lead one to accept or deny the truth of a claim, not on the basis of the strength of the arguments in support of the claim themselves, but because of the extent of the claim's correspondence with one's own preconceived ideas. A systematic bias is a bias resulting from a flaw integral to the system within which the bias arises (for example, an incorrectly calibrated thermostat may consistently read – that is 'be biased' – several degrees hotter or colder than actual temperature). Consequently, systematic bias commonly leads to systematic errors, as opposed to random errors, which tend to cancel one another out. In practice, accusations of bias often result from unacknowledged favoritism on the part of a critic or judge, or indeed any person in a position requiring the careful and disinterested exercise of arbitration or assessment. Any tendency to favor a certain set of values naturally leads to an uneven dispensation of judgment. It may also be noted that, if a person were to take their own preexisting view as a priori balanced without acknowledging their own personal inclinations, any person or organization that disagrees with their views is likely to be viewed as biased regardless of that person or organization's actual efforts at balance. It may be observed that bias is, in a sense, reflexive, unacknowledged or unrecognised bias potentially leading to its apprehension (with or without good reason) in others. |
| Bibliometrics | Uses published data to derive quantitative statistics useful in understanding change and the spread of ideas, in this field. Ted Gordon: Bibliometrics is the study, or measurement, of texts and information (Norton, 2001). Bibliometrics is a type of content analysis. While it is often used in the field of library and information science, it has wide applications in other areas.Historically bibliometric methods have been used to trace relationships amongst academic journal citations. Citation analysis, which involves examining an item's referring documents, is used for searching for materials and analyzing their merit. Citation indexes, such as Institute for Scientific Information's Web of Science, allow users to search forward in time from a known article to more recent publications which cite the known item.Data from citation indexes can be analyzed to determine the popularity and impact of specific articles, authors, and publications. Using citation analysis to gauge the importance of one's work, for example, is a significant part of the tenure review process. Information scientists also use citation analysis to quantitatively assess the core journal titles and watershed publications in particular disciplines; interrelationships between authors from different institutions and schools of thought; and related data about the sociology of academia.Although citation analysis is nothing new (the Science Citation Index began publication in 1961), greater computing power is making it more useful and widespread. Google's Page Rank is based on the principle of citation analysis. Other bibliometrics applications include: creating thesauri; measuring term frequencies; exploring grammatical and syntactical structures of texts. |
| Bifurcations | 1. Gives routes towards futuribles,which are our possible futures. When bifurcations are based on quantitative considerations and may be considered as the results from numeric computations catastrophe are qualitative and symbolic 2. The connection in one possible space solutions perceived by an equation or a problem or also a proliferant co-existence to possible futures. The rediscovery of time brings us one ethic responsibility. Today at last,we can hold as an inevitable weight of our histories.Other bifurcations are imaginable, accessible to the price of other fluctuations of tomorrow’s numerous humankind. |
| Big crunch | The cosmological theory predicting that the universe will stop expanding and begin contracting until it is reduced to a single point – the reverse of the Big Bang. |
| Binomial Theorem .Ted Gordon | In mathematics, the binomial theorem is an important formula giving the expansion of powers of sums. Its simplest version reads whenever n is any non-negative integer, the numbers are the binomial coefficients, and n! denotes the factorial of n. This formulars, and the triangular arrangement of the binomial coefficients, are often attributed to Blaise Pascal who described them in the 17th century. It was, however, known to the Chinese mathematician Yang Hui in the 13th century, the earlier Persian mathematician Omar Khayyám in the 11th century, and the even earlier Indian mathematician Pingala in the 3rd century BC. For example, here are the cases n = 2, n = 3 and n = 4: Formula (1) is valid for all real or complex numbers x and y, and more generally for any elements x and y of a semiring as long as xy = yx. |
| Bio-economic equilibrium Proponed by Perelet | Not Found |
| Biocentrism. Proponed by Perelet | Biocentrism is the belief that all life, or even the whole universe living or otherwise taken as a whole, is equally valuable and humanity is not the center of existence. Hence, humanity is no more valuable than say, mice. Biocentrism has been proposed as an antonym of anthropocentrism, which is a conscious or subconscious belief that human beings and human society are, or should be, the central focus of existence. Donald Worster has traced today’s biocentric conscience, which is an important part of the recovery of a sense of kinship between man and nature, to Victorians reacting against the Christian ethic of dominion over nature. He points out that Darwin was the most important spokesman for the biocentric attitude in ecological thought and quotes from his ‘Notebooks on Transmutation’ ‘If we choose to let conjecture run wild, then animals, our fellow brethren in pain, diseases, death, suffering and famine-our slaves in the most laborious works, our companions in our amusement-they may partake of our origin in one common ancestor-we may be all netted together’ Another thread of biocentricity comes from ethnological studies of species-specific taboos. This is an important contribution to the concept of ‘Sacred Ecology’ developed by Fikret Berkes from his studies on traditional resource management. |
| Biodiversity | The 1992 United Nations Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro defined biodiversity as "the variability among living organisms from all sources, including, inter alia, terrestrial, marine, and other aquatic ecosystems, and the ecological complexes of which they are part: this includes diversity within species, between species and of ecosystems". This is, in fact, the closest thing to a single legally accepted definition of biodiversity, since it is the definition adopted by the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity. The parties to this convention include all the countries on Earth, with the exception of Andorra, Brunei Darussalam, the Holy See, Iraq, Somalia, Timor-Leste, and the United States of America. Biological diversity,. indicates the total number of living species found in the biosphere including variations found in form and function in the entire biological systems. Three types of biodiversity: 1) genetic (molecular, 2) biological (organismal) and 3) habitat (ecological, the word fist appeared in biological literature in 1986, given preeminent importance during the Convention on Biodiversity held in Rio in 1992. Biodiversity is an index of the biological wealth of this planet. 2) Terms indicating the total range of types of living organisms in a particular location or country. It often carries an implicit suggestion that greater biodiversity is good, whereas declining biodiversity indicates a loss of, e.g. genetic and other biological resources. Use fun concept insofar as it draws attention to ecological health and variability, but its generality limits this usefulness. Hence a term that point toward a major area of concern but which also needs to be supplemented and elaborated by more detailed concepts and data. |
| Bioelectricity | Bioluminescence. The production of light or electric discharges by living organisms. The mechanism has evolved indepndently in many kinds of organisms from bacteria to vertebrates. (1) Bioelectromagnetism (sometimes equated with bioelectricity) refers to the static voltage of biological cells and to the electric currents that flow in living tissues, such as nerves and muscles, as a result of action potentials. Description Biological cells use bioelectricity to store metabolic energy, to do work or trigger internal changes, and to signal one another. Bioelectromagnetism is the electric current produced by action potentials along with the magnetic fields they generate through the phenomenon of electromagnetic induction. Bioelectromagnetism is studied primarily through the techniques of electrophysiology. In the late eighteenth century, the Italian physician and physicist, Luigi Galvani, first recorded the phenomenon while dissecting a frog at a table where he had been conducting experiments with static electricity. Galvani coined the term animal electricity to describe the phenomenon, while contemporaries labeled it galvanism. Galvani and contemporaries regarded muscle activation as resulting from an electrical fluid or substance in the nerves. Bioelectromagnetism is an aspect of all living things, including all plants and animals. Bioenergetics is the study of energy relationships of living organisms. Biodynamics deals with the energy utilization and the activities of organisms. Some animals have acute bioelectric sensors and are highly sensitive to magnetic fields, such as migratory birds, which are believed to navigate in part by orienting with respect to the Earth's magnetic field. In addition, sharks are more sensitive to local interaction in electromagnetic fields than most humans. Other animals, such as the electric eel, are able to generate large electric fields outside their bodies. In the life sciences, biomedical engineering uses concepts of circuit theory, molecular biology, pharmacology, and bioelectricity. Bioelectromagnetism is associated with biorhythms and chronobiology. Biofeedback is used in physiology and psychology as to monitor rhythmic cycles of physical, mental, and emotional characteristics and as a technique for teaching the control of bioelectric functions. Bioelectromagnetism involves the interaction of ions. Bioelectromagnetism is sometimes difficult to understand because of the differing types of bioelectricity, such as brainwaves, myoelectricity (e.g., heart-muscle phenomena), and other related subdivisions of the same general bioelectromagnetic phenomena. One such phenomenon is a brainwave, which neurophysiology studies, and is where bioelectromagnetic fluctuations of voltage between parts of the cerebral cortex that are detectable with an electroencephalograph. This is primarily studied in the brain by way of the electroencephalogram or "EEG." |
| Bioethics | 1.It is the study of life ethics. A word coined in the later part of the 20th century to describe the various rights and wrongs of new scientific and technological procedures and discoveries (in particular in response to human experimentation during World War II) which were seen to bear a direct and significant impact upon human survival. 2. Rules of conduct in scientific research that involve many disciplines and skills such as law, philosophy, theology medicine, science and technological research. Wikipedia Bioethics is the ethics of biological science and medicine. Bioethics concerns the ethical questions that arise in the relationships between biology, medicine, cybernetics, politics, law, philosophy, and theology. Disagreement exists about the proper scope for the application of ethical evaluation to questions involving biology. Some bioethicists would narrow ethical evaluation only to the morality of medical treatments or technological innovations, and the timing of medical treatment of humans. Other bioethicists would broaden the scope of ethical evaluation to include the morality of all actions that might help or harm organisms capable of feeling fear and pain. Bioethics involves many public policy questions that are often politicized and used to mobilize political constituencies, hence the emergence of biopolitics and its techno-progressive/bioconservative axis. For this reason, some biologists and others involved in the development of technology have come to see any mention of "bioethics" as an attempt to derail their work and react to it as such, regardless of the true intent. Some biologists can be inclined to this line of thought, as they see their work as inherently ethical, and attacks on it as misguided. [edit] Ideology and methodology Bioethicists often focus on using philosophy to help analyze issues, and philosophical bioethicists such as Peter Singer tend to treat the field as a branch of moral or ethical philosophy. However, this approach is sometimes challenged, and bioethics is becoming increasingly interdisciplinary. Many bioethicists come from backgrounds outside of academic philosophy, and some even claim that the methods of analytic philosophy have had a negative effect on the field's development. Religious bioethicists have developed rules and guidelines on how to deal with these issues from within the viewpoint of their respective faiths. Some Western secular bioethicists are critical of the fact that these are usually religious scholars without an academic degree or training in disciplines that pertain to the issues, such as philosophy (wherein the formal study of ethics is usually found), biology or medicine. Many religious bioethicists are Jewish or Christian scholars. However a growing number of religious scholars from other religions have become involved in this field as well. Islamic clerics have begun to write on this topic. Muslim bioethicists include Abdulaziz Sachedina, at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville. There has been some criticism by liberal Muslims that only the more religiously conservative voices in Islam are being heard on this issue. In the case of most non-Western cultures, a strict separation of religion from philosophy does not exist. In many Asian cultures, there is a lively (and often less dogmatic, but more pragmatic) discussion on bioethical issues. The discussion often refers to common demographic policies that which are criticised, as in the case of China. Buddhist bioethics, in general, is characterised by a naturalistic outlook that leads to a rationalistic, pragmatic approach. Buddhist bioethicists include Damien Keown. In Africa, and partly also in Latin America, the debate on bioethics frequently focus on its practical relevance in the context of underdevelopment and (national or global) power relations. |
| Biogeochemical Cycles.Proponed by Perelet | In ecology, a bio-geochemical cycle is a circuit or pathway by which a chemical element or molecule moves through both biotic ("bio-") and abiotic ("geo-") compartments of an ecosystem. In effect, the element is recycled, although in some, such cycles there may be places (called "sinks") where the element is accumulated or held for a long period of time. All chemical elements occurring in organisms are part of bio-geochemical cycles. In addition to being a part of living organisms, these chemical elements also cycle through abiotic factors of ecosystems such as water (hydrosphere), land (lithosphere), and the air (atmosphere); the living factors of the planet can be referred to collectively as the biosphere. All the chemicals, nutrients, or elements—such as carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus—used in ecosystems by living organisms operate on a closed system, which refers to the fact that these chemicals are recycled instead of being lost and replenished constantly such as in an open system. The energy of an ecosystem occurs on an open system; the sun constantly gives the planet energy in the form of light while it is eventually used and lost in the form of heat throughout the trophic levels of a food web. The Earth does not constantly receive more chemicals as it receives light. The only chemicals that the Earth has consist of the chemicals that were formed in the creation of the Earth. Therefore, the planet does not “receive” more chemicals constantly, and the only way to obtain more chemicals or nutrients is from occasional meteorites from outer space that contain those elements. Because chemicals operate on a closed system and cannot be lost and replenished like energy can, these chemicals must be recycled throughout all of Earth’s processes that use those chemicals or elements. These cycles include both the living biosphere, and the nonliving lithosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere. The fact that these chemicals cycle through both biotic and abiotic factors creates the name “bio-geochemical cycle,” in that the prefix “bio” stands for living and the prefix “geo” stands for the abiotic, nonliving factors (chemical refers to the chemicals being recycled). The chemicals are sometimes held for long periods in one place. This place is called, a reservoir, which, for example, includes such things as coal deposits that are storing carbon for a long period. When chemicals are held for only short periods, they are being held in exchange pools. Generally, reservoirs are abiotic factors while exchange pools are biotic factors. Examples of exchange pools include plants and animals, which temporarily use carbon in their systems and release it back into the air or wherever. Carbon is held for a relatively short time in plants and animals when compared to coal deposits. The amount of time that a chemical is held in one place is called its residence. The most well-known and important bio-geochemical cycles, for example, include the carbon cycle, the nitrogen cycle, the oxygen cycle, the phosphorus cycle, and the water cycle. Bio-geochemical cycles always involve equilibrium states: a balance in the cycling of the element between compartments. However, overall balance may involve compartments distributed on a global scale. Biogeochemical cycles of particular interest in ecology are: • nitrogen cycle • oxygen cycle • carbon cycle • phosphorus cycle • sulfur cycle • water cycle • hydrogen cycle |
| Biopiracy.Proponed by Perelet | Biopiracy in the narrower sense refers to the appropriation, generally by means of patents, of indigenous biomedical knowledge by foreign entities (including corporations, universities and governments) without compensatory payment.[1] The classic case is that of the Rosy Periwinkle (Madagascar Periwinkle), a plant native to Madagascar. [2] Research into the plant was prompted by the plant's traditional medicinal role and resulted in the discovery of a large number of biologically active chemicals, including the children's cancer cure vincristine. Vincristine is both highly effective in curing children's cancer and, as a result, an unusually lucrative drug. Vincristine was initially patented and marketed by Eli Lilly. It is widely reported that the country of origin did not receive any payment.[3] Biopiracy is also used in a looser sense to cover the various forms of power imbalance between richer and poorer countries, which arise out of poorer countries' tendencies towards high biodiversity and richer countries' tendencies towards needing or wanting the benefits of that high biodiversity. As debate on biopiracy has established itself, so too have pharmaceutical companies and national governments modified their behaviour in response to the debate, leading to a proliferation of related ethical issues and dilemmas. While not strictly "piratical" themselves, nevertheless debate on these related issues is subsumed under the title "biopiracy". Bio-prospecting. Biopiracy is a value-laden term which at the same time has established itself as the primary concept in academic ethical debate on the subject. The term "bioprospecting" is a frequent alternative neutral or positive term. For political correctness, the combination "biopiracy and bioprospecting" can be used. While biopiracy and bioprospecting are easily defined in terms of each other (biopiracy is illegal or unethical bioprospecting; bioprospecting is legalised or ethical biopiracy), a United Nations University Institute of Advanced Studies report stated in 2005 that there was no agreed definition of bioprospecting.[4] |
| Bioprospecting Proponed by Perlet | Bioprospecting is • the collecting and testing of biological samples (plants, animals, micro-organisms) • and the collecting of indigenous knowledge to help in discovering and exploiting genetic or biochemical resources Bioprospecting has primarily economic purposes (e.g., new drugs, crops, industrial products) Before 1992, biological resources were considered a common heritage of humankind. Scientists could take samples from anywhere in the world without any specific permission. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, 1992) re-affirms the sovereign rights of countries over the biological resources within their borders. Though not granted property upon natural resources, biodiversity-rich countries are committed to : • conserve their biodiversity • develop it for sustainable use • share fairly the benefits resulting from this use In short, bioprospecting has to be allowed by the biodiversity-rich country and must benefit it (and the communities that traditionally use these resources) as well as the corporations (usually from developed countries) or universities collecting the bioresource. Bioprospecting must follow the new rules of international treaties and national laws. More specifically, it must respect • informed consent (the source country must know what will be done with the resource, and how benefits will be shared; and must give permission for collecting) • fair agreement on benefit sharing (benefits may include support for conservation, research, equipment, technologies, knowledge transfer, development, royalties) Bioprospecting may be considered as biopiracy when these principles are not respected. Some even argue bilateral agreements of bioprospecting between a country or a community and a corporation are a sort of juridical validation of biopiracy toward traditional communities whose values and rights are not considered and respected. |
| Biotechnology | The use or development of techniques using organisms (or parts of organisms) to provide or improve goods or services. It is the application of biological knowledge for the purpose of solving practical problems in healthcare, agriculture, veterinary science and related fields. Biotech The shortened form of "biotechnology" which first appeared in the 1970's when it became possible to manipulate the genetic make-up of living organisms; for example, biotech companies can create plants and animals with new characteristics such as resistance to disease where the biotechnician is a person working in a biotech laboratory. Since the 1970's, the creation of modified life-forms have generated heated ethical and environmental controversy. Wikipedia Biotechnology is a technology based on biology, especially when used in agriculture, food science, and medicine. Of the many different definitions available, the one formulated by the UN Convention on Biological Diversity is one of the broadest: "Biotechnology means any technological application that uses biological systems, living organisms, or derivatives thereof, to make or modify products or processes for specific use." (Article 2. Use of Terms) Biotechnology can also be defined with: "Biotechnology is the manipulation of organisms to do practical things and to provide useful products." One section of biotechnology is the directed use of organisms for the manufacture of organic products (examples include beer, milk products, and skin). Naturally present bacteria are utilized by the mining industry in bioleaching. Biotechnology is also used to recycle, treat waste, clean up sites contaminated by industrial activities (bioremediation), and produce biological weapons. There are also applications of biotechnology that do not use living organisms. Examples are DNA microarrays used in genetics and radioactive tracers used in medicine. Modern biotechnology is often associated with the use of genetically altered microorganisms such as E. coli or yeast for the production of substances like insulin or antibiotics. It can also refer to transgenic animals or transgenic plants, such as Bt corn. Genetically altered mammalian cells, such as Chinese Hamster Ovarian (CHO) cells, are also widely used to manufacture pharmaceuticals. Another promising new biotechnology application is the development of plant-made pharmaceuticals. Biotechnology is also commonly associated with breakthroughs in new medical therapies and diagnostic devices. History Sub-fields of biotechnology A part of multiple alignment of four different hemoglobin protein sequences, made by using ClustalW WWW Service at the European Bioinformatics Institute Jargon used for sub-fields of biotechnology: Red biotechnology is biotechnology applied to medical processes. Some examples are the designing of organisms to produce antibiotics, and the engineering of genetic cures to cure diseases through genomic manipulation. White biotechnology, also known as grey biotechnology, is biotechnology applied to industrial processes. An example is the designing of an organism to produce a useful chemical. White biotechnology tends to consume less in resources than traditional processes when used to produce industrial goods. Green biotechnology is biotechnology applied to agricultural processes. An example is the designing of transgenic plants to grow under specific environmental conditions or in the presence (or absence) of certain agricultural chemicals. One hope is that green biotechnology might produce more environmentally friendly solutions than traditional industrial agriculture. An example of this is the engineering of a plant to express a pesticide, thereby eliminating the need for external application of pesticides. An example of this would be Bt corn. Whether or not green biotechnology products such as this are ultimately more environmentally friendly is a topic of considerable debate. Bioinformatics is an interdisciplinary field which addresses biological problems using computational techniques. The field is also often referred to as computational biology. It plays a key role in various areas like functional genomics, structural genomics, and proteomics amongst others, and forms a key component in biotechnology and pharmaceutical sector. The term blue biotechnology has also been used to describe the marine and aquatic applications of biotechnology, but its use is relatively rare. |
| Bitmaps,Proponed by Ted Gordon | Research By John Young Graphics encoded in the .bmp format, in which an image is stored as a rectangular array of pixels (picture elements), with each pixel datum containing a color value (in one of a number of different codes), and possibly other information. Wikipedia 1. Most commonly, bitmaps refers to raster graphics. 2. Also, bitmaps refers to arrays of boo-lean values, when stored efficiently so that 8 array elements are stored to the byte. They are frequently used to indicate whether an allocation unit is free or used in memory management, file systems and databases. |
| Blogs | The “blobject.” The term was coined by contemporary designer Karim Rashid, author of a book aptly titled I Want to Change the World. They are computer modeled objects manufactured out of blown goo. They are rounded, humpy, bumpy plastic creations. They are often translucent. And though they're merely made things, blobjects tend to be fleshy, pseudo-alive, and seductive: rubbery, grippy, flexy, squeezy, pettable, and cuddly. Some contemporary examples: the Gillette Mach 3 razor. The Oral-B toothbrush. The Swatch Twinphone and the Phillips USB desktop video camera. The Handspring Visor PDA Gelatinous wrist rest. TechnoGel in office seating. “Morph” Cross pens with bulbous gel grips. The curvy, slithery Microsoft Explorer mouse. The curvy, plastic Oh chair and magnesium Go chair. Blobjects carry the flag in a world whose manifest destiny is “organic behavior in a technological matrix.” Chips shape them and make them behave. Computer-aided design and injection molding allow them to assume any form. They get their organic forms directly from us: from mimicking human flesh. Unlike classic twentieth-century industrial objects, their form does not follow their function. That's because their functional parts, being chip-based, are too small to see. Blobjects evolve from human ergonomics. Screens must be large enough for human eyes to see. Buttons must be properly sized for human fingertips. Telephones must be properly sized to the human mouth and ear. The ergonomically spectacular Oral-B toothbrush is all about human teeth and human gripping pads, right down to the crook of the little finger. Blobjects look like us because they stick around with us, and they live with us, and they try to please us-they are blobs because we're blob's, too. But blobjects are not made for the consumer. They are made for a knowing participant in the technocratic scramble for wealth, the “end user.” The end user does not consider himself a consumer. He is deeply engaged in the system, exploiting and adapting it. (1) Wikipedia A weblog (usually shortened to blog, but occasionally spelled web log or weblog) is a web-based publication consisting primarily of periodic articles, most often in reverse chronological order. Although most early weblogs were manually updated, tools to automate the maintenance of such sites made them accessible to a much larger population, and the use of some sort of browser-based software is now a typical aspect of "blogging". Blogs can be hosted by dedicated blog hosting services, or they can be run using blog software on regular web hosting services. Like other media, blogs often focus on a particular subject, such as food, politics, or local news. Some blogs function as online diaries. A typical blog combines text, images, and links to other blogs, web pages, and other media related to its topic. Blog basics The term blog is a blend of the terms web and log, leading to web log, weblog, and finally blog. Authoring a blog, maintaining a blog or adding an article to an existing blog is called blogging. Individual articles on a blog are called "blog posts," "posts" or "entries". A person who posts these entries is called a blogger. A blog entry typically consists of the following: • Title - main title, or headline, of the post. • Body - main content of the post. • Permalink - the URL of the full, individual article. • Post Date - date and time the post was published. A blog entry optionally includes the following: • Comments - comments added by readers • Categories (or tags) - subjects that the entry discusses • Trackback and or pingback - links to other sites that refer to the entry Alongside the regularly updated entries, a blog site often has a less-frequently-updated list of links, or blogroll, of other blogs that the author reads; and/or, with whom he or she affiliates. (2 |
| Bootstrapping paradigm | A paradigm originated from visionary/inventor Doug Engelbart, which envisions the kind of new, co-evolutionary environment that can be created to help cope with simultaneous social, technical, and economic changes at the rate, scale and urgency that humanity is faced with. |
| Boston Consulting Group method, BCG | |
| Bottom-Up Modelling,Proposed by Perelet | Bottom up models are based in detailed analysis of technical potencial, and hence disaggregated compared to the aggregate top-down modelling technique. The relative merits of these two modelling techniques are presented in IPCC (1996b). In essence, bottom-up models are better at simulating detailed substitution potentials, and top-down aggregate models are used to estimate the expected impacts on the wider economy. Two approaches for bottom-up modelling are spreadsheet modelling and optimization modelling. The former uses simultaneous equations in describing the potential for the adoption of a given technology in an economy, while the latter simulates investment decisions endogenously. |
| Box Jenkins Models Proposed by Ted Gordon | In econometrics, the Box-Jenkins methodology, named after the statisticians George Box and Gwilym Jenkins, applies auto regressive integrated moving average ARIMA models to find the best fit of a time series to past values of this time series, in order to make forecasts. |
| Brain Trust | Research by John Young A group of advisors assembled to provide counsel to a leader, used originally of the group attached to Franklin D. Roosevelt. Wikipedia The "Brain Trust" or "Brains Trust" was the name given to a group of diverse academics, including economists and professors who served as advisors to U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt during the early period of his tenure. The group never met together but acted as informal advisors; having an academic team was first suggested in March 1932 by Roosevelt's legal counsel Samuel Rosenman. In 1918 President Woodrow Wilson had assembled The Inquiry, a group of academic advisors he brought to the Versailles Conference. The Brain Trust in 1932 to 1933 included Raymond Moley, Rexford Tugwell, and Adolf Berle, all professors at Columbia University. Later added were attorney Basil O'Connor and Felix Frankfurter of Harvard Law School These men played a key role in shaping the policies of the First New Deal. Although they never met together as a group, they each had Roosevelt's ear. Other academic advisory to the New Deal were often called "brain thrusters". Many newspaper editorials and editorial cartoons ridiculed them as impractical idealists. Moley broke with Roosevelt and became a sharp critic of the New Deal from the right. The concept of Roosevelt's brains trust was an inspiration for The Roosevelt Institution, a student think tank trying to once again move ideas from academia into the policy discourse. |
| Brain writing | This method is similar to brainstorming. The only difference is that the participants are given a set of coloured sheets of paper and the ideas are first written down, one idea per sheet. The sheets are then attached to a flip chart or posted on the wall, organized in the best possible way. Typical patterns can thus be seen very quickly and the number of repetitions of the same idea indicates the preferences of the group. |
| Brainstorming | 1. A stage of rapid production of ideas in which a group of minds come together with an attitude of imagination and intent to trash out lists of options or possibilities. During the brainstorming session no ideas are criticized or considered too fanciful the elimination and selection processes come afterward. 2. A method of eliciting ideas without judgment or filtering. Often used in the early stages of futures workshops and in many other contexts. Involves encouraging wild and unconstrained suggestions and listing ideas as they emerge. Is a method used in groups in order to support creative problem-solving, the generation of new ideas and greater acceptance of proposed solutions. The brainstorming is based on the capacity of the human brain to make associations. |
| Branching Programs.Proposed by Ted Gordon | |
| Business As Usual Scenario Perelet | Research by John Young A scenario in which major parameters do not change from their currently existing states |
| Business portfolio models Proposed by Perelet | Depend on the segmentation of the firm's business activities and its positioning in relation to key factor of success that are commonly considered fundamental. These models give rise to dynamic product management often linked to marketing and financial strategies. These different qualities have led to the success of the portfolio analysis matrix, the most well-known examples are BCG's, ADL's and Mac Kinsey's. Every portfolio analysis method takes as its starting point two strategic questions that any firm asks itself once it has divided its business activities into segments or areas of strategic business: - what is my market position in each of the SBAs? - what is the present and future value (or interest) of these SBAs? |
| Business portfolio models Proposed by Perelet | Depend on the segmentation of the firm's business activities and its positioning in relation to key factor of success that are commonly considered fundamental. These models give rise to dynamic product management often linked to marketing and financial strategies. These different qualities have led to the success of the portfolio analysis matrix, the most well-known examples are BCG's, ADL's and Mac Kinsey's. Every portfolio analysis method takes as its starting point two strategic questions that any firm asks itself once it has divided its business activities into segments or areas of strategic business: - what is my market position in each of the SBAs? - what is the present and future value (or interest) of these SBAs? |
| Butterfly Effect | A metaphor to illustrate sensitivity to initial conditions. The metaphor was popularized by MIT’s Edward Lorenz with his 1979 paper, “Predictability: does the flap of a butterfly’s wing in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?”. The metaphor illustrates how a very small event may have large effects. (1) A metaphorical term describing the image of a butterfly fluttering its wings in Asia and causing a hurricane in the Atlantic. (2) Wikipedia (3) The butterfly effect is a phrase that encapsulates the more technical notion of sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory. Small variations of the initial condition of a dynamical system may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system. This is sometimes presented as esoteric behavior, but can be exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill might roll into any of several valleys depending on slight differences in initial position. The phrase refers to the idea that a butterfly's wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere that ultimately cause a tornado to appear (or, for that matter, prevent a tornado from appearing). The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale phenomena. Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different. Recurrence, the approximate return of a system towards its initial conditions, together with the sensitive dependence on initial conditions, are the two main ingredients for chaotic motion. They have the practical consequence of making complex systems, such as the weather, difficult to predict past a certain time range—approximately a week, in the case of weather. History Sensitive dependence on initial conditions was first described in the literature by Hadamard and popularized by Duhem's 1906 book. The term butterfly effect is related to the work of Lorenz, who in a 1963 paper for the New York Academy of Sciences noted that "One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a seagull's wings could change the course of weather forever." Later speeches and papers by Lorenz used the more poetic butterfly. According to Lorenz, upon failing to provide a title for a talk he was to present at the 139th meeting of the AAAS in 1972, Philip Merilees concocted Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas? as a title. Illustration The butterfly effect in the Lorenz attractor time 0 ≤ t ≤ 30 (larger) z coordinate (larger) These figures show two segments of the three-dimensional evolution of two trajectories (one in blue, the other in yellow) for the same period of time in the Lorenz attractor starting at two initial points that differ only by 10-5 in the x-coordinate. Initially, the two trajectories seem coincident, as indicated by the small difference between the z coordinate of the blue and yellow trajectories, but for t > 23 the difference is as large as the value of the trajectory. The final position of the cones indicates that the two trajectories are no longer coincident at t=30. A Java animation of the Lorenz attractor shows the continuous evolution. Mathematical definition A dynamical system with evolution map ft displays sensitive dependence on initial conditions if points arbitrarily close become separate with increasing t. If M is the state space for the map ft, then ft displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if there is a δ>0 such that for every point x∈M and any neighborhood N containing x there exist a point y from that neighborhood N and a time τ such that the distance The definition does not require that all points from a neighborhood separate from the base point x. |
| CAA Matrix of convergences: actor x actor Proposed by Perelet | It is one MAO x MOA matrix.CAA is obtained by the matrix product that retains only positive scalar products.This is also the number of objectives towards which actors have a convergent attitude, either favorable or unfavorable depending on the number of convergences This matrix indicates for actors, the number of objectives on which they are in convergence. |
| Calvert-Henderson quality of life indicators Proposed by Hazel Henderson | Created by the Calvert Group of socially-responsible mutual funds and Hazel Henderson –updated regularly at www.calvert-henderson.com) The Calvert-Henderson Quality of Life Indicators are a contribution to the worldwide effort to develop comprehensive statistics of national well-being that go beyond traditional macroeconomic indicators. A systems approach is used to illustrate the dynamic state of our social, economic and environmental quality of life. The dimensions of life examined include: education, employment, energy, environment, health, human rights, income, infrastructure, national security, public safety, re-creation and shelter. Key decision makers will quickly be brought up-to-speed on the state of each domain. Researchers will be able to download current and historical data streams. Journalists will gain insights from experts in each field who highlight and explain subtle trends that affect our daily lives. It is our hope that all users will use the indicators to help clarify the multiple choices we make in our work, education, leisure, and civic commitments |
| Canon Proposed by Pentti Malaska | |
| Capacities for transformation | There are five capacities for transformation: • Create an environment for transformational change by understanding the impact of future trends. • Create an Institute of the Future. • Training process for leader • Create an electronic infrastructure • Develop a network of citizens at the neighborhood level who are trained in 21st century skills • Develop an environment of mutual caring • Establish a "council for the common good." |
| Carrying capacity | 1. Core concept associated with sustainability. Refers to the theoretical maximum 'load' that can be carried by an ecosystem before it is damaged. Subject to revision according to many factors including technology, human impacts, scientific insights etc. See overshoot and collapse and ecological load. 2. As population density increases, birth rates decrease and death rates increase. The carrying capacity is at the point when these two rates are equal. It is usually a range of values, rather than a single point in time. It is the number of individuals an environment can support without negative effects. Carrying capacity is therefore the largest size of a density-dependent population for which the population is at equilibrium (population size neither increases nor decreases). A factor that keeps population size at equilibrium is known as a regulating factor. Below carrying capacity, populations will tend to increase, while above, they will tend to decrease. Population size decreases above carrying capacity due to a range of factors depending on the species concerned, but can include insufficient space, food supply, or sunlight. The carrying capacity of an environment will vary for different species in different habitats, and can change over time due to a variety of factors including trends in food availability, environmental conditions and space. It is also possible for a species to pass its carrier capacity, in which case the population can drastically fall as shortages in food and water take effect. This is often considered more devastating for a population as it produces stress for the entire species, and populations can fall far below the carrier capacity |
| Casinos Proposed by Ted Gordon | A casino is a facility that accommodates certain types of gambling activities. Casinos are often placed near or combined with hotels, restaurants, retail shopping, cruise ships and other vacation attractions. Some casinos are known for hosting live entertainment events, such as concerts and sporting events, especially boxing. |
| Catastrophe Theory Proposed by Ted Gordon | In mathematics, catastrophe theory is a branch of bifurcation theory in the study of dynamical systems; it is also a particular special case of more general singularity theory in geometry. Bifurcation theory studies and classifies phenomena characterized by sudden shifts in behavior arising from small changes in circumstances, analysing how the qualitative nature of equation solutions depends on the parameters that appear in the equation. This may lead to sudden and dramatic changes, for example the unpredictable timing and magnitude of a landslide. Catastrophe theory, which was originated with the work of the French mathematician René Thom in the 1960s, and became very popular not least due to the efforts of Christopher Zeeman in the 1970s, considers the special case where the long-run stable solution can be identified with the minimum of a smooth, well-defined potential function (Lyapunov function). Small changes in parameters can cause previously stable equilibrium to disappear, leading to a large and sudden transition of the behaviour of the system. However, examined in a larger parameter space, catastrophe theory reveals that such bifurcation points tend to occur as part of well-defined qualitative geometrical structures. Elementary catastrophes Catastrophe theory analyses degenerate critical points of the potential function -- points where not just the first derivative, but one or more higher derivatives of the potential function are also zero. These are called the germs of the catastrophe geometries. The degeneracy of these critical points can be unfolded by expanding the potential function as a Taylor series in small perturbations of the parameters. When the degenerate points are not merely accidental, but are structurally stable, the degenerate points exist as organising centers for particular geometric structures of lower degeneracy critical features in parameter space around them. If the potential function depends on three or fewer active variables, and five or fewer active parameters, then there are only seven generic structures for these bifurcation geometries, with corresponding standard forms into which the Taylor series around the catastrophe germs can be transformed by change of variables. These are now presented, with the names that Thom gave them. Potential functions of one active variable Fold catastrophe Stable and unstable pair of extrema which disappear at a fold bifurcation At negative values of a, the potential has two extrema - one stable, and one unstable. If the parameter is slowly increased, the system can follow the stable minimum point. But at a=0 the stable and unstable extrema meet, and annihilate. This is the bifurcation point. At a>0 there is no longer a stable solution. If a physical system is followed through a fold bifurcation, one therefore finds that as a reaches 0, the stability of the a<0 solution is suddenly lost, and the system will make a sudden transition to a new, very different behavior. This bifurcation value of the parameter is sometimes called the tipping point. Cusp catastrophe Diagram of cusp catastrophe, showing curves (brown, red) of x satisfying dV / dx = 0 for parameters (a,b), drawn for parameter b continuously varied, for several values of parameter a. Outside the cusp locus of bifurcations (blue), for each point (a,b) in parameter space there is only one extremising value of x. Inside the cusp, there are two different values of x giving local minima of V(x) for each (a,b), separated by a value of x giving a local maximum. Cusp shape in parameter space (a,b) near the catastrophe point, showing the locus of fold bifurcations separating the region with two stable solutions from the region with one. Pitchfork bifurcation at a=0 on the surface b=0 The cusp geometry is very common, when one explores what happens to a fold bifurcation if a second parameter, b, is added to the control space. Varying the parameters, one finds that there is now a curve (blue) of points in (a, b) space where stability is lost, where the stable solution will suddenly jump to an alternate outcome. But in a cusp geometry the bifurcation curve loops back on itself, giving a second branch where this alternate solution itself loses stability, and will make a jump back to the original solution set. By repeatedly increasing b and then decreasing it, one can therefore observe hysteresis loops, as the system alternately follows one solution, jumps to the other, follows the other back, then jumps back to the first. However, this is only possible in the region of parameter space a<0. As a is increased, the hysteresis loops become smaller and smaller, until above a=0 they disappear altogether (the cusp catastrophe), and there is only one stable solution. One can also consider what happens if one holds b constant and varies a. In the symmetrical case b=0, one observes a pitchfork bifurcation as a is reduced, with one stable solution suddenly splitting into two stable solutions and one unstable solution as the physical system passes to a<0 through the cusp point a=0, b=0 (an example of spontaneous symmetry breaking). Away from the cusp point, there is no sudden change in a physical solution being followed: when passing through the curve of fold bifurcations, all that happens is an alternate second solution becomes available. A famous suggestion is that the cusp catastrophe can be used to model the behaviour of a stressed dog, which may respond by becoming cowed or becoming angry. The suggestion is that at moderate stress (a>0), the dog will exhibit a smooth transition of response from cowed to angry, depending on how it is provoked. But higher stress levels correspond to moving to the region (a<0). Then, if the dog starts cowed, it will remain cowed as it is irritated more and more, until it reaches the 'fold' point, when it will suddenly, discontinuously snap through to angry mode. Once in 'angry' mode, it will remain angry, even if the direct irritation parameter is considerably reduced. Fold bifurcations and the cusp geometry are by far the most important practical consequences of catastrophe theory. They are patterns which reoccur again and again in physics, engineering and mathematical modeling. The remaining simple catastrophe geometries are very specialised in comparison, and presented here only for curiosity value. Swallowtail catastrophe The control parameter space is three dimensional. The bifurcation set in parameter space is made up of three surfaces of fold bifurcations, which meet in two lines of cusp bifurcations, which in turn meet at a single swallowtail bifurcation point. As the parameters go through the surface of fold bifurcations, one minimum and one maximum of the potential function disappear. At the cusp bifurcations, two minima and one maximum are replaced by one minimum; beyond them the fold bifurcations disappear. At the swallowtail point, two minima and two maxima all meet at a single value of x. For values of a>0, beyond the swallowtail, there is either one maximum-minimum pair, or none at all, depending on the values of b and c. Two of the surfaces of fold bifurcations, and the two lines of cusp bifurcations where they meet for a<0, therefore disappear at the swallowtail point, to be replaced with only a single surface of fold bifurcations remaining. Butterfly catastrophe Depending on the parameter values, the potential function may have three, two, or one different local minimal, separated by the loci of fold bifurcations. At the butterfly point, the different 3-surfaces of fold bifurcations, the 2-surfaces of cusp bifurcations, and the lines of swallowtail bifurcations all meet up and disappear, leaving a single cusp structure remaining when a>0. Potential functions of two active variables Umbilic catastrophes are examples of corank 2 catastrophes. They can be observed in optics in the focal surfaces created by light reflecting off a surface in three dimensions and are intimately connected with the geometry of nearly spherical surfaces. Thom proposed that the Hyperbolic umbilic catastrophe modeled the breaking of a wave and the elliptical umbilic modeled the creation of hair like structures. Hyperbolic umbilic catastrophe Elliptic umbilic catastrophe Parabolic umbilic catastrophe Arnold's notation Vladimir Arnol'd gave the catastrophes the ADE classification, due to a deep connection with simple Lie groups. • A0 - a non singular point: V = x. • A1 - a local extrema, either a stable minimum or unstable maximum . • A2 - the fold • A3 - the cusp • A4 - the swallowtail • A5 - the butterfly • Ak - an infinite sequence of one variable forms • D4- - the elliptical umbilic • D4+ - the hyperbolic umbilic • D5 - the parabolic umbilic • Dk - an infinite sequence of further umbilic forms • E6 - the symbolic umbilic V = x3 + y4 + axy2 + bxy + cx + dy • E7 • E8 There are objects in singularity theory which correspond to most of the other simple Lie groups. |
| Causal layered analysis | Descripción del término New futures research theory and method. As a method it seeks to integrate empiricist, interpretive, critical and action learning modes of knowing. As a method, its utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. It is also likely to be of use in developing more effective --deeper, inclusive, longer-term-- policy. Causal layered analysis consitsconsist of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/worldview and myth/metaphor. The challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down these layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing. CLA begins and ends by questioning the future. CLA assumes four levels: 1) "litany", quantitative trends, problems, often exaggerated, often used for political purposes. 2) Social causes, including economic, cultural, political and historical factors. 3) Structure and discourse/worldview that supports and legitimates it 4) Metaphor or myth, which are deep stories, the collective archetypes (unconscious and often emotive dimensions of the problem or the paradox. These four layer overlap. The Catastrophe Theory strength of CLA is its capacity to move beyond the superficiality of conventional forecasting methods insofar as these methods are often unable to unpack worldviews, ideologies and discourses, not to mention archetypes, muth and metaphors. They give ready-made futures forgetting the institutional practices and values that go into making them, while CLA is not concerned with predicting a particular future, it does open up space for the articulation of constitutive discourses, which can then be shaped as scenarios. CLA is of great value in creating richer scenarios and can be used in the in casting phase CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS TABLE (developed by Jennifer Fitzgerald). Level Problem Solution Who can solve it? Source – Information Litany Official public discourse Problem seems difficult to solve or easy to solve as depth is not seen Short term approaches Government Television Newspaper Systemic, Social Science analysis Society, Technology, Economy, Environment and Politics Problem because of short term historical factors Integrated approaches – systemic solutions Partnerships between different sectors of society – government plus business plus civil society plus individuals Policy Journals, editorials Worldview (Discourse – Paradigm) Constituted by frame of analysis – deep structure. Transform consciousness, change worldview, rethink self and other Writers, philosophers, those outside the dominant discourse Peripheral journals, ideological journals, philosophy courses Myth and Metaphor. Constituted by core myth, derived from often a traumatic or transcendent event. Uncover myth and metaphors and create processes to imagine alternative stories of what it means to be. Cannot be rationally designed. Emergence is necessary. Collective unconscious often guided by visionary, mystic, leader.Works of artists, visionaries, mystics, and certain movies |
| Causal networks Proposed by Ted Gordon | Causal layered analysis (CLA) is one of several futures techniques used as a means to inquire into the causes of social phenomena and to generate a set of forecasts as to the future course of the phenomena. As a theory, CLA seeks to integrate empiricist, interpretive, critical and action learning modes of knowing (loosely, science, social science, philosophy and mythology). As a method, its utility is not in predicting the future but in creating trans-formative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. It is also likely to be of use in developing more effective — deeper, inclusive, longer term — policy. Causal layered analysis consists of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/world-view and myth/metaphor. The first level is the litany – the official unquestioned view of reality. The second level is the social causation level, the systemic perspective. The data of the litany is explained and questioned at this second level. The third level is the worldview/discourse. Deeper unconscious held ideological, worldview and discursive assumptions are unpacked at this level. As well, how different stakeholders construct the litany and system are explored. The fourth level is the myth-metaphor, the unconscious emotive dimensions of the issue. The challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down these layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing. Doing so allows for the creation of authentic alternative futures and integrated transformation. CLA begins and ends by questioning the future. |
| Cellular automata models | The distinction between cellular automata models and agent models is not sharp and the terms are often used interchangeably. In most cellular automata models the present state of a cell in a matrix is determined by the state of cells surrounding it, whereas in agent models, the cells are "occupied" by agents that interact with each other -even at a distance - and sometimes interact with the attributes of the cells in which they exist. Further they may move from cell to cell. Cellular automata models have been employed over a broad range of topics, from the simulation of fluid motion |
| Chance elements | Add a measure of realism if they reflect the real probabilities of specific events. |
| Change cycle | A model showing how social innovations may go through a four-stage process before being adopted. These are 1 Breakdowns of meaning (problems) ; 2. Conceptualizations (suggested solutions); 3. Negotiations and conflicts, and 4. Selective legitimating ('winnowing'). The model can be used to investigate social innovations past, present and future. Sometimes called the 'trans-formative cycle' or 'T -cycle' for short |
